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Entering a new era of energy reform - academicians and experts focus on the impact of the energy revolution and structural adjustment

this is a "spiritual feast" to study and judge the development trend of the oil and gas industry from a wide perspective, focus on the development focus of the industry, and exchange new situations of exploration and development

not long ago, the oil and gas resources strategic research center of the Ministry of land and resources organized and held the "high-end Seminar on China's oil and gas resources development strategy (2016)" in Beijing. Experts and representatives from relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry of land and resources, the development research center of the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission, the national energy administration, the China Geological Survey, the information center of the Ministry of land and resources, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem Group, Yanchang Petroleum group, Zoomlion coal and other units, focusing on the theme of "China's oil and gas resources development strategy under the new situation", discussed the current situation of oil and gas resources industry at home and abroad He expressed his views on the impact of the energy revolution and the construction of ecological civilization on the energy industry, the adjustment of energy structure, the trend of oil prices and how to deal with major hot issues such as low oil prices, and exchanged views on the exploration and development of natural gas, tight oil and gas, deep-water oil and gas, shale gas, coalbed methane and natural gas hydrate in China in recent years

the international energy pattern has been profoundly adjusted, and the formation of a multipolar oil and gas supply pattern has been accelerated. The oil supply has remained loose, and the oil price has hovered at a low level.

in recent years, the development situation of oil and gas at home and abroad has undergone major changes, and the development of the oil and gas resources industry is currently facing some new situations

PENG Qiming, chief engineer of the Ministry of land and resources, made a keynote speech on "strengthening confidence, building consensus and jointly planning the grand blueprint for the sustainable development of oil and gas resources in the new era" at the seminar. He introduced that during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, China's oil and gas resources exploration and exploitation achieved remarkable results, with 11 100 million ton oil fields and 15 100 billion cubic meter gas fields successively proved. The proved reserves continued to maintain a high growth, unconventional natural gas developed rapidly, shale gas gradually became an important supplement to natural gas, and the pattern of simultaneous development of oil and gas initially appeared. Important achievements have been made in the basic geological survey and dynamic evaluation of oil and gas resources, which provide a strong guarantee for the sustainable and stable development of the national economy and the safe supply of oil and gas

judging the current situation, Peng Qiming believes that the current world economy is recovering in twists and turns in the deep adjustment, and the international political and economic pattern is undergoing complex and profound evolution, in which the change of energy pattern is an important aspect. From the perspective of the international energy situation, the oil and gas industry has been impacted by two aspects. First, the shale gas revolution in the United States has led to the rapid development of unconventional oil and gas resources, which has led to the profound adjustment of the international energy pattern and accelerated the formation of a multi polar oil and gas supply pattern. The global oil and gas reserves have increased significantly, the oil supply has remained loose and the demand has gradually moved eastward. At the same time, the cold world economic situation and declining demand further led to a sharp decline in international oil prices, which hovered at a long-term low of $40 - $50 a barrel (Note: at present, it rebounded slightly, oscillating around $55/barrel). Judging from the domestic situation, we have promoted the supply side structural reform, accelerated the transformation of the mode of economic development, and significantly slowed down the growth rate of energy demand. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the issue of energy and resource security, establish the strategy of energy revolution, and accelerate the construction of a low-carbon, clean, safe and efficient modern energy and resource system

what new situation is China's oil and gas resources industry facing? Peng Qiming believes that, first, the demand for energy resources is growing steadily. From the perspective of the economic development process of developed countries, with the slowdown of economic growth and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, the scale of energy and resource demand has gradually stabilized. Under the new normal, China's economic growth has slowed down, but it is still a strong driving force for world economic development. China still has huge demand for oil and gas and other energy resources. The demand growth rate during the 13th five year plan is expected to be about 3%, which provides a solid basic support for the development of oil and gas in China and even the world. Second, the structure of oil and gas resources is constantly adjusted. Under the continuous low oil price, the development momentum of China's oil and gas upstream has been seriously affected, the investment has been continuously reduced, and the oil production has been reduced. At the same time, positive progress has been made in the structural adjustment and cost reduction of oil and gas development, and the sustainable development path of oil and gas suitable for China's national conditions and effectively breaking through the bottleneck of oil price is being explored under the low oil price

the global energy industry has entered a new era of change: we should strive to change the development mode of energy and form a new concept of energy security; Energy revolution is a qualitative change

energy is the blood of modern society and the foundation and driving force of modernization. After long-term development, China has become the largest energy producer and consumer in the world, forming an energy supply system with the all-round development of coal, oil, natural gas, new energy and renewable energy. It is also facing challenges such as huge pressure on energy demand, many constraints on energy supply, and serious damage to the ecological environment caused by energy production and consumption. In recent years, China has put forward a new strategy and new thinking of "energy revolution"

researcher guojiaofeng of the development research center of the State Council delivered a speech entitled "China's energy strategy in the context of ecological civilization". He expounded his views from the perspective of the evolution of the concept of human sustainable development and international comparison

he said that the massive utilization of fossil energy has brought many negative effects to the world. In order to solve this problem, a series of new development concepts have been introduced in the history of human development, such as the concept of sustainable development, green development, low-carbon development, clean development and so on. These ideas have also promoted the reform of energy, and global energy has entered a new era of change

researcher Guo Jiaofeng believes that global energy change is inseparable from civilization and progress. From the development of fuelwood to coal and oil in the past, to the development of oil and gas and renewable energy today, every energy change is continuous. The progress of civilization has also promoted the energy revolution. Now mankind has entered the third energy revolution, which is constantly advancing all over the world. 1. The intensity of the experiment and the accuracy of the measurement depend on the steps and links in the experimental process. The United States and Germany are promoting the revolutionary energy transformation of coal to natural gas and coal to renewable energy. This development trend has become a global consensus, which is an irreversible process. The energy consumption structure is developing from coal to oil and gas, and then from oil and gas to renewable energy. In the future, it may also form an energy consumption pattern dominated by renewable energy

what are the new features of this energy revolution? Guo Jiaofeng believes that the formation and development of the third energy revolution is different from the past energy transformation. The past energy transformation has been accompanied by the progress of industrial revolution and technology, showing a trend of reducing energy costs. The transformation and development to natural gas and clean energy requires a substantial improvement in technology on the one hand, and the energy cost may rise significantly on the other hand. At the government level, the key now is to promote the sustainable development of energy through the energy revolution or the concept of ecological civilization in Mojave, California. In general, we should take the sustainable development of energy as an important starting point for the construction of ecological civilization. To promote the energy revolution, we should not only focus on the energy development on the supply side, but now pay equal attention to production and consumption. In the future, efforts should be made to change the development mode of energy, and at the same time, a new concept of energy security should be formed, including supply security, economic (price) security, ecological environment security, etc

Zhang Hongtao, counselor of the State Council, expressed his views on the topic of "energy development and ecological civilization construction". He talked about his understanding of China's strategy of promoting the "energy revolution" from the role of energy in the three industrial revolutions and the new energy strategy of the United States

counselor Zhang Hongtao believed that in the evolution of the three industrial revolutions in the world, energy played the role of driving force of historical development. The main energy of the first industrial revolution was coal, the main energy of the second industrial revolution was coal and oil, and the third industrial revolution took place at the turn of the century. The main energy was fossil energy plus renewable energy

Counselor Zhang Hongtao introduced that the shale gas revolution in the United States in recent years was actually conceived in a very early period. In 1976, the government came forward to promote the development of shale gas industry in the United States. After 30 to 40 years of technological precipitation and accumulation, the conditions were mature in 2000. In 2014, the output of shale gas in the United States reached 380billion cubic meters. In the past, the United States has always burned oil for heating and used oil for power generation in winter, but the development of shale gas can be concentrated on fracturing to form production capacity before winter, so that the cost of natural gas is much lower than that of fuel oil. The cost is getting lower and lower, and the market demand is increasing. It is the technological revolution and demand that have promoted the fundamental transformation of the energy structure

when it comes to promoting the energy revolution, Counselor Zhang Hongtao believes that: "The energy revolution is a kind of abandonment of the mode of relying on high energy and high resource, which is to subvert China's economic model. 8. Roll and record the paper changes on the rotating drum of the depicting drum. It is not reform, it is a qualitative change, involving production, consumption, technology, system, etc. the central government has raised it to a strategic height, showing the determination and responsibility of the central government. Its goal is to lead industrial change and upgrading and build a green low-cost economy Carbon, based on domestic diversified energy supply system. "

Counselor Zhang Hongtao pointed out that from the reality of China, there are two points worth noting in the energy revolution: energy production should not only optimize the stock, but also expand the increment. To optimize the stock, we should promote the clean and efficient development and utilization of coal, because China's national conditions are dominated by coal; Expand the increment, accelerate the increase of the proportion of renewable energy such as hydropower, wind energy, solar energy and biological intelligence, develop nuclear energy safely and efficiently, optimize the layout of energy production, coordinate the two overall situations, adhere to the domestic position and deepen international cooperation

When it comes to the energy revolution, Peng Qiming, chief engineer of the Ministry of land and resources, believes that the central government has put forward the energy revolution strategy, which involves the upstream field of oil and gas. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have made a series of strategic arrangements for the reform of oil and gas system. For the field of land and resources, it is necessary to do a good job in the reform of oil and gas exploration and exploitation system and mechanism, which is also the biggest dividend for the development of China's oil and gas industry. The main task of the reform in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry is to open up the market in an orderly manner, which is not only the need to ensure the healthy development of the country, but also the need for the development of oil companies themselves

the development process of global low-carbon and clean energy has accelerated, and the overall energy development has entered the key replacement period of replacing coal with oil and gas, and the rapid development period of replacing fossil energy with non fossil energy

under the new situation, how to adjust the energy consumption structure

Jin Zhijun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that now there is a view that oil and gas will be worthless in a period of time, and solar energy and wind energy can be completely replaced. Our research believes that some new energy and technology development have a cycle. From the development history of oil, natural gas, nuclear energy and hydropower, it takes 50 years for a new energy to increase its proportion in disposable energy from 1% to 16% to 18%. This development process is slow. My view: before 2050, oil and gas resources will still be the world's most important primary energy. The development of oil and gas resources industry still has a long way to go, so we should strengthen our confidence. Of course, we should pay full attention to the development of new energy and new technologies, especially the progress of solar energy utilization and nuclear energy technology

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