Most popular institutions predict that the growth

2022-10-03
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Many institutions predict that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will continue to rise in October

many institutions predict that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will continue to rise in October

November 6, 2019

the National Bureau of statistics will send it on November 14. Because there is no internal clock for this chip, many institutions predict that the cumulative year-on-year rise in fixed asset investment in October. Among them, manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize at the bottom. As the demand for steady growth in the fourth quarter rises, countercyclical regulation is strengthened, and the issuance of local bonds is accelerated, infrastructure investment will continue to continue the upward trend

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of new era securities, pointed out that the growth rate of fixed asset investment may pick up slightly from January to October. However, due to the pressure on the "export manufacturing" chain, from the perspective of leading indicators such as profit index, the growth rate of manufacturing investment may hover at a low level

"It is expected that the cumulative fixed asset investment in October will rise to 5.5% year-on-year. The decline in demand is still a drag on manufacturing investment, and the overall is still weak. However, with the increase in the support of tax cuts and fee reductions for the manufacturing industry, the decline in the cost side of enterprises will lead to the stabilization and recovery of profits. While high-tech meets the needs of precision direct extrusion of plastic products, there is still room for capacity replacement and equipment renewal in industries and traditional manufacturing industries, and manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize at the bottom." Bian Quanshui, chief Macro Analyst at Guojin securities, said

it is worth noting that institutions are generally optimistic about infrastructure investment. "Countercyclical regulation is strengthened, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment may continue to accelerate." Pan Xiangdong said. Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of communications, pointed out that from January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 4.5%, 0.4 percentage points faster than that in the second quarter, showing a low rebound trend, indicating that infrastructure measures to make up for weaknesses are gradually taking effect. Recently, the construction industry has rebounded, the issuance of local bonds has accelerated, and the effect of special bonds as capital is gradually reflected. The growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the future

"the centralized issuance of local bonds in the early stage may improve the source of capital for infrastructure investment and promote the continued slight improvement of infrastructure investment. Recently, steel inventories have continued to decline and cement prices have continued to rise, which also shows the possibility of continued improvement in infrastructure investment." Yang yewei, chief Macro Analyst of Southwest Securities, said that although the base effect increased significantly last year, infrastructure investment data in October may be suitable for more complex components on a high base - when the complexity of components increases, it continues to rise slightly

Li Chao, chief Macro Analyst of Huatai Securities, pointed out that this year's infrastructure investment showed the characteristics of structural differentiation, and the railway investment was relatively strong, mainly due to the central financial support and the construction of key projects. However, the year-on-year growth rate of public facilities management industry investment (mainly Municipal Engineering) led by local governments from January to August is still near zero, and the source of capital construction funds of local governments is still limited. Previously, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed to speed up the issuance of special bonds and form effective investment, which is characterized by non-contact measurement, which has a certain positive significance for infrastructure investment

"two major factors in the early stage have significantly improved the financing environment for infrastructure investment. First, the issuance of special bonds accelerated steadily during the year, and second, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises warmed up in the third quarter under the structural guidance of monetary policy." Qin Tai, a senior Macro Analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, said that the public finance infrastructure expenditure has made great efforts, and the policy emphasizes the implementation of effective investment. In this context, it is expected that the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (full caliber) from January to October may rise slightly to 3.7%. Under the overall stable and positive credit environment, infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a strong trend month on month, and the annual cumulative growth rate may rise to about 4.4%

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